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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 78

Tennessee Titans 7 – Arizona Cardinals 12

What Actually Happened

(1:11) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short middle to 25-A.Jackson (32-T.Mathieu). Penalty on TEN-81-J.Smith, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +0.87 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 78, worth -1.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 35, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model