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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 12 at the 77

Arizona Cardinals 12 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(1:41) 2-A.Lee punts 55 yards to TEN 22, Center-49-J.Drescher. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 22 for no gain (13-Ja.Brown, 35-E.Penny).

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.62 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 77, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 34, worth -1.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model