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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 18 at the 71

Tennessee Titans 7 – Arizona Cardinals 12

What Actually Happened

(2:11) 6-B.Kern punts 56 yards to ARI 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 10-B.Golden to ARI 25 for 10 yards (41-B.Trawick).

The Three Options

GO -2.23 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +1.79 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 71, worth -3.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 29, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model