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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 22

Arizona Cardinals 6 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(12:08) 4-P.Dawson 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Drescher, Holder-2-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.23 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.75 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 22, worth -1.04 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 32, worth -1.62 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model