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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 65

Tennessee Titans 7 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(7:35) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 14-E.Weems. 14-E.Weems up the middle to TEN 36 for 1 yard (57-J.Bynes, 35-E.Penny). Arizona challenged the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Punt formation) Direct snap to 14-E.Weems. 14-E.Weems up the middle to TEN 35 for no gain (57-J.Bynes, 35-E.Penny).

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.80 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 65, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 23, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model