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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 16 at the 29

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(9:41) 4-P.Dawson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Drescher, Holder-2-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.25 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 29, worth -1.33 EP
KICK +1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 39, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model