4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 55

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(1:01) (Punt formation) 2-A.Lee punts 43 yards to TEN 12, Center-49-J.Drescher. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 26 for 14 yards (35-E.Penny).

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.40 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 55, worth -2.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 16, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model