Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 85

Tennessee Titans 7 – Arizona Cardinals 0

(2:00) 6-B.Kern punts 58 yards to ARI 27, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 21-P.Peterson to ARI 31 for 4 yards (89-P.Supernaw, 50-N.Palmer).

The Three Options

GO -2.98 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.06 EP
67% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 85, worth -4.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model