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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 23

San Francisco 49ers 23 – Houston Texans 16

What Actually Happened

(3:54) 9-R.Gould 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +2.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.04 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 23, worth -0.70 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 33, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP