Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 16 at the 64

San Francisco 49ers 23 – Houston Texans 16

(12:40) 5-B.Pinion punts 24 yards to HOU 40, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.38 EP
74% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 64, worth -3.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model