Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 75

Houston Texans 16 – San Francisco 49ers 23

What Actually Happened

(1:32) 9-S.Lechler punts 59 yards to SF 16, Center-46-J.Weeks. 81-T.Taylor to SF 26 for 10 yards (22-J.Todman). PENALTY on SF-27-D.McCoil, Illegal Blindside Block, 13 yards, enforced at SF 26.

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.91 EP
65% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model