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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 54

Houston Texans 16 – San Francisco 49ers 16

What Actually Happened

(5:36) 9-S.Lechler punts 44 yards to SF 10, Center-46-J.Weeks. 81-T.Taylor ran ob at SF 15 for 5 yards (51-D.Cole).

The Three Options

GO +0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.74 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP