Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 11 at the 76

Houston Texans 3 – San Francisco 49ers 3

(5:45) 9-S.Lechler punts 44 yards to SF 32, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 81-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.84 EP
66% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model