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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 91

Houston Texans 3 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:13) 9-S.Lechler punts 56 yards to SF 35, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 81-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -2.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.92 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 91, worth -5.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.60 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 48, worth -2.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model