Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 62

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(10:19) 5-B.Pinion punts 54 yards to HOU 8, Center-86-K.Nelson. 11-D.White to HOU 11 for 3 yards (27-D.McCoil). PENALTY on HOU-35-E.Pleasant, Illegal Blindside Block, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 11.

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.55 EP
66% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 62, worth -3.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model