Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 17 at the 63

Houston Texans 3 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(12:25) 9-S.Lechler punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.13 EP
74% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model