Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 20 at the 85

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(3:59) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 46 yards to JAX 39, Center-69-T.Ott. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 43 for 4 yards (52-T.Garvin). PENALTY on JAX-59-C.Phillips, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 39. Penalty on JAX-25-P.Thompson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

The Three Options

GO -3.60 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.35 EP
76% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 85, worth -5.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model