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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 20

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(6:30) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Lambo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Holba, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +1.98 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +5.07 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 20, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +2.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT +0.37 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model