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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 14

Jacksonville Jaguars 27 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(4:09) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Lambo 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Holba, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +2.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.78 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 14, worth -0.68 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP