4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 11 at the 33

Jacksonville Jaguars 24 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(10:07) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Lambo 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Holba, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.31 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 33, worth -1.98 EP
KICK +0.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.40 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 43, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.82 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model