Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 71

Seattle Seahawks 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 17

(5:58) 9-J.Ryan punts 44 yards to JAX 27, Center-69-T.Ott. 85-J.Mickens to SEA 1 for 72 yards (28-J.Coleman).

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.43 EP
60% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 71, worth -4.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model