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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 8 at the 10

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(8:33) 7-B.Walsh 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +1.71 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.20 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 10, worth -0.09 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model