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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 20

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(:20) 7-B.Walsh 38 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +3.97 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 20, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +2.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.79 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30, worth -0.48 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model