Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 68

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Seattle Seahawks 0

(8:56) 3-B.Nortman punts 40 yards to SEA 28, Center-49-C.Holba. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 25 for -3 yards (25-P.Thompson).

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.33 EP
63% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 68, worth -3.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model