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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 74

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(10:44) 9-J.Ryan punts 60 yards to JAX 14, Center-69-T.Ott. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 26 for 12 yards (9-J.Ryan). PENALTY on JAX-55-L.McCray, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 7 yards, enforced at JAX 14. Penalty on JAX-23-T.Patmon, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.08 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 74, worth -4.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 32, worth -1.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model