Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 14 at the 67

Kansas City Chiefs 26 – Las Vegas Raiders 15

(2:45) 2-D.Colquitt punts 55 yards to LV 12, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 30-J.Richard.

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +1.43 EP
70% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 67, worth -3.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model