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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 29

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 26

What Actually Happened

(7:17) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 87-J.Cook for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-T.Hali].

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.32 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 29, worth -1.33 EP
KICK +0.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 39, worth -1.76 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model