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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 16 at the 53

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 26

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 7-M.King punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-59-J.Condo, Touchback. LV-39-K.McGill was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.26 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 53, worth -2.98 EP
KICK -2.08 EP
  • 16% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 84% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 15, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model