Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 14 at the 79

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 19

(9:01) 7-M.King punts 50 yards to KC 29, Center-59-J.Condo. 10-T.Hill pushed ob at KC 33 for 4 yards (33-D.Washington).

The Three Options

GO -2.77 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
69% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 79, worth -4.67 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model