4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 69

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 16

What Actually Happened

(1:26) 7-M.King punts 44 yards to KC 25, Center-59-J.Condo. 10-T.Hill pushed ob at KC 25 for no gain (39-K.McGill).

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.73 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 69, worth -3.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.58 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 27, worth -1.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model