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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 15 at the 15

Kansas City Chiefs 13 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(1:45) 7-H.Butker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
  • 24% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.00 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 15, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model