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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 11

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(10:51) 7-H.Butker 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.51 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 11, worth -0.70 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 22, worth -1.32 EP
PUNT -0.70 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP