Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 18 at the 83

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(13:39) 7-M.King punts 31 yards to LV 48, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-33-D.Washington. PENALTY on KC-57-K.Pierre-Louis, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 48.

The Three Options

GO -3.34 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
72% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 83, worth -5.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model