Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 19 at the 84

New York Jets 0 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(5:56) 4-L.Edwards punts 47 yards to DEN 37, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 87-J.Taylor to DEN 49 for 12 yards (32-J.Burris; 42-T.Hennessy). NYJ-42-T.Hennessy was injured during the play. His return is Probable.

The Three Options

GO -3.43 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.15 EP
74% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 84, worth -5.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model