4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 51

Denver Broncos 23 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(2:23) 9-R.Dixon punts 36 yards to NYJ 15, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-43-J.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +1.97 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 51, worth -1.72 EP
KICK -0.72 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP