Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 83

New York Jets 0 – Denver Broncos 23

(4:39) 4-L.Edwards punts 41 yards to DEN 42, Center-83-E.Tomlinson, fair catch by 87-J.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -1.93 EP

50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.68 EP
50% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 83, worth -4.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model