4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 13

Denver Broncos 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(9:05) 8-B.McManus 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +2.05 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.63 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 13, worth +0.16 EP
KICK +2.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 23, worth -0.46 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model