Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 65

Denver Broncos 23 – New York Jets 0

(5:59) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to NYJ 12, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 87-J.Natson to NYJ 11 for -1 yards (14-C.Latimer).

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.55 EP
62% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 65, worth -3.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model