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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 73

New York Jets 0 – Denver Broncos 23

What Actually Happened

(7:33) 4-L.Edwards punts 49 yards to DEN 24, Center-83-E.Tomlinson. 87-J.Taylor to DEN 31 for 7 yards (51-J.Stanford).

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.38 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 73, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 31, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model