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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 58

Denver Broncos 23 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(8:40) 9-R.Dixon punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.05 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 58, worth -2.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 18, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP