Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 64

New York Jets 0 – Denver Broncos 13

(13:02) 4-L.Edwards punts 56 yards to DEN 8, Center-83-E.Tomlinson. 87-J.Taylor to DEN 32 for 24 yards (51-J.Stanford).

The Three Options

GO -1.63 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.63 EP
67% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 64, worth -3.73 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model