Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 15 at the 83

Minnesota Vikings 24 – Carolina Panthers 31

(1:11) (Shotgun) 7-C.Keenum pass incomplete deep left to 19-A.Thielen (20-K.Coleman).

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP

What Happened

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +0.74 EP
70% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 83, worth -3.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.09 EP