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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 9

Minnesota Vikings 21 – Carolina Panthers 24

What Actually Happened

(3:11) 2-K.Forbath 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +1.48 EP
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.98 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 9, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.71 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model