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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 64

Carolina Panthers 24 – Minnesota Vikings 13

What Actually Happened

(7:13) 5-M.Palardy punts 45 yards to MIN 19, Center-44-J.Jansen. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at MIN 27 for 8 yards (53-B.Jacobs).

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.79 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 64, worth -3.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.27 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 22, worth -1.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP