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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 16 at the 36

Minnesota Vikings 13 – Carolina Panthers 24

What Actually Happened

(14:25) 2-K.Forbath 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.47 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.91 EP
KICK +0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model