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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 23

Carolina Panthers 21 – Minnesota Vikings 13

What Actually Happened

(6:57) 9-G.Gano 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +2.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.65 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 23, worth -0.64 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened
  • 87% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 33, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP