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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 4

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(:09) 2-K.Forbath 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +2.86 EP
  • 41% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.89 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 4, worth +0.08 EP
KICK +2.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.04 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model