Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 61

Carolina Panthers 14 – Minnesota Vikings 10

(2:45) 5-M.Palardy punts 35 yards to MIN 26, Center-44-J.Jansen. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 32 for 6 yards (55-D.Mayo; 27-K.Seymour).

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.53 EP
69% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 61, worth -3.31 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model