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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 12

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(5:08) 2-K.Forbath 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +2.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.14 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 12, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP