Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 79

Green Bay Packers 7 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(12:23) (Punt formation) 8-J.Vogel punts 54 yards to CLE 25, Center-61-B.Goode. 29-D.Johnson Jr. MUFFS catch, touched at CLE 25, and recovers at CLE 25. 29-D.Johnson Jr. to CLE 30 for 5 yards (45-V.Biegel).

The Three Options

GO -2.68 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.86 EP
65% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 79, worth -4.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model